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Mortality Risk Calculator

What are the odds? Your annual mortality risk, computed from peer-reviewed research across 50+ health and lifestyle factors. Fair warning: the answer can be sobering.

Takes about 5-7 minutes

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This calculator provides educational estimates based on population-level mortality data and published relative risk ratios from peer-reviewed research. It is NOT medical advice, NOT insurance underwriting, and NOT an individual prediction. Results reflect population averages, not personal prognosis. The model uses algorithmic safety constraints to prevent unrealistic outputs from correlated factor stacking. All source data comes from the Social Security Administration and peer-reviewed publications. Do not use for medical, insurance, or financial decisions.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about mortality risk and this calculator.

This calculator uses population-level data from the Social Security Administration and peer-reviewed studies from journals like JAMA, Lancet, and NEJM. It provides statistical estimates based on group averages, not individual predictions. Results offer a data-informed perspective on mortality risk.
Every risk factor is sourced from published research. Base mortality rates come from the SSA Period Life Tables. Risk modifiers come from peer-reviewed studies on smoking (NEJM), obesity (Lancet), exercise (JAMA), alcohol use (Lancet), and dozens of other factors. Each factor links back to its source.
Many health and lifestyle factors are correlated. For example, obesity, diabetes, and sedentary behavior often overlap. Multiplying their risks independently would produce absurdly high numbers. The Composite Index Risk Model groups correlated factors and applies caps to keep estimates realistic.
No. This is an educational tool only. Insurance underwriting considers your full medical history, lab results, and family history. A doctor evaluates your individual circumstances. This calculator uses population averages and cannot account for your unique health profile.
It puts lifestyle choices in perspective and gives you a concrete starting point for conversations about life insurance, estate planning, and long-term financial protection for your family.
Most calculators multiply risk factors independently, which leads to impossibly high numbers when multiple risks stack. This tool uses a Composite Index Risk Model that recognizes correlations between factors, applies diminishing returns on stacked risks, and adds transport/activity risks as separate probability components.
Use them as a conversation starter. If your risk is higher than expected, consider discussing lifestyle changes with your doctor. If you have dependents, your results can help frame the conversation about adequate life insurance coverage. Our coverage gap calculator can help you figure out how much protection your family needs.